Regional Trends and Threats to Freedom

Africa

Amid coups and flawed elections, glimmers of hope for democracy and judicial independence

Freedom declined across Africa for the 10th straight year in 2023. Elections in Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar were marred by political violence and accusations of fraud, while conflicts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo led to devastating human rights abuses. Military juntas ousted civilian governments in Niger and Gabon, continuing a wave of coups on the continent. Against this backdrop, successful elections in Liberia and a number of court rulings that protected LGBT+ people’s rights stood out as bright spots during the year.

Liberia’s general elections represented a moment of democratic hope for West Africa, where the recent coups have been concentrated. The elections, deemed free and fair by international observers, were the first to be independently managed by Liberian electoral authorities, without foreign assistance, since a 1999–2003 civil war. Outgoing president George Weah became the first incumbent since the war to peacefully concede defeat after opposition leader Joseph Boakai won the presidency in a runoff vote. What followed was the country’s second consecutive democratic transfer of power after a gap of more than seven decades.

Restrictions on same-sex relations remained severe across much of Africa, and grew worse in some cases during 2023, but courts in at least two countries took modest steps to protect the rights of LGBT+ citizens. Kenya’s Supreme Court ruled against the government’s NGO Coordination Board after it refused to register the National Gay and Lesbian Human Rights Commission, deeming the board’s decision discriminatory and unconstitutional. In Namibia, the Supreme Court ordered the government to recognize and provide residency permits to the foreign same-sex spouses of Namibians who married abroad. These favorable rulings underscored the important role played by an independent judiciary in protecting the rights of individuals and marginalized groups in an electoral democracy.

Americas

Voters defy authoritarian obstacles and criminal violence

Freedom faced extraordinary challenges in the Americas in 2023, as nine countries recorded overall score declines, and none registered improvements. The negative trend was driven by crackdowns against the political opposition and escalating criminal violence, which continued to corrode democratic institutions. Nevertheless, 22 of the 35 countries in the Americas were still classified as Free, making the region one of the freest in the world. The ballot box proved a powerful tool for democratic renewal, and more countries moved to lift harsh historical restrictions on reproductive health care.

Voters across the region turned out at the polls, at times overcoming tremendous adversity or outright repression to do so. In Guatemala, Indigenous voters helped propel anticorruption candidate Bernardo Arévalo to a resounding presidential election victory, and were instrumental in blocking dubious attempts by incumbent officials to overturn the results. Following a turbulent campaign period marred by political violence, more than 80 percent of registered voters in Ecuador participated in that country’s relatively well-administered snap elections. The new president, Daniel Noboa, has pledged to confront deepening insecurity, corruption, and organized crime. In Venezuela, one of the least free countries in the region, 2.3 million people cast ballots in an independently organized opposition primary that was meant to select a unity candidate ahead of the 2024 presidential election, demonstrating Venezuelans’ resolve to reverse the authoritarian misrule of incumbent Nicolás Maduro through democratic means.

Continuing a positive regional trend from the past several years, Mexico’s Supreme Court decriminalized abortion at the federal level and reinforced a state-level decriminalization process that had already been underway. In Honduras, an executive decree lifted the country’s strict ban on emergency contraception—an important step forward in a country where abortion remains prohibited in all cases.

Asia-Pacific

Despite electoral inequalities, efforts to increase political pluralism persist

Freedom declined in the Asia-Pacific region in 2023, with efforts to undermine the political opposition threatening electoral integrity as a record number of countries prepared for polls in 2024. Pro-democracy candidates were kept out of district elections in Hong Kong, and the electoral campaign in Bangladesh was marred by violence and boycotted by the opposition.

Despite this overall deterioration, there were several meaningful improvements. Fiji experienced the world’s largest score improvement for 2023 thanks to a smooth transfer of power after watershed elections in late 2022, moving the country further away from the antidemocratic legacy of a 2006 coup. In Nepal, a new amendment to the Citizenship Act allowed more than 400,000 stateless individuals born in Nepal to officially become Nepali citizens and participate in the country’s politics. In Bhutan, the first round of parliamentary elections featured robust competition among five different parties. The rise of the new Bhutan Tendrel Party and the defeat of two well-established parties marked a step forward for political pluralism in the kingdom, where freedom has been steadily improving over the past decade.

Reinvigorated political participation, particularly among young people and newer parties, also had a positive impact elsewhere in the region. In Thailand, young voters mobilized ahead of national elections that were ultimately more competitive than past votes and contributed to Thailand’s status improvement from Not Free to Partly Free. Although the reformist Move Forward Party, which won a plurality of votes, was blocked from forming a government, the results compelled the military-backed establishment to allow another opposition party to lead the new ruling coalition. In Taiwan, political pluralism was widely upheld in the months leading up to the January 2024 general elections. The Taiwan People’s Party, a relatively new political faction, mounted a significant challenge against the well-established Democratic Progressive Party and Kuomintang. The balloting and subsequent transfer of power went smoothly despite Beijing’s attempts at intimidation and interference.

Eurasia

Democratic forces push back against growing authoritarian pressure

Eurasia experienced a staggering decline in freedom in 2023, driven largely by the Azerbaijani regime’s conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh and the expulsion of its ethnic Armenian population, as well as deepening authoritarian repression within Russia during the second year of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Freedom also declined in Tajikistan due to increased government efforts to suppress free expression and heightened persecution of the country’s ethnic Pamiri community. While Eurasia remained dominated by Not Free countries in 2023, with none rated Free, democratic forces in several Partly Free settings made efforts to resist authoritarian pressure during the year.

Repressive governments across the region have followed Moscow’s lead by proposing or enacting laws that label independent media outlets and civil society organizations as “foreign agents.” In early 2023, the government of Georgia attempted to pass its own version of a foreign agents law, which would have significantly undermined freedoms of association and expression. The draft bill was rescinded following massive public demonstrations by its opponents, though ruling party lawmakers indicated that the legislation could be resubmitted following public consultation.

Citizens and elected governments in other countries took steps to distance themselves from Moscow’s authoritarian influence in 2023. Despite potential reprisals by the Kremlin, Moldovans pushed to confirm their path toward European Union membership, with tens of thousands of people attending a rally in support of the project. The government passed several related reforms, and both Moldova and Ukraine were given the green light for EU accession talks at the end of the year. After receiving a massive influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia’s government deepened its rift with the Russian regime, whose lackluster peacekeeping performance did little to stem the Azerbaijani military’s assault in September. Since then, Yerevan has worked to reduce its dependence on Russia by diversifying its military and foreign policy partners while maintaining its commitment to democratic reforms.

Europe

Strides toward equal treatment for LGBT+ people

While freedom declined in Europe in 2023, more than 80 percent of European residents still live in Free countries. The decline was largely a result of worsening government dysfunction, including growing concerns about official corruption and a lack of transparency. Despite these challenges, European states remained global leaders in the protection of LGBT+ people’s rights, and several countries passed measures to improve legal equality. Poland’s newly elected government included similar changes in its ambitious reform agenda, raising hopes for a reversal of the country’s nearly decade-long democratic deterioration.

In June, Estonia became the second Eastern European country (after Slovenia) to legalize same-sex marriage; the new law took effect in January 2024. In November, Latvia’s parliament legalized same-sex civil unions, providing some official recognition to same-sex couples. A law guaranteeing the right of same-sex couples to adopt children entered into force in the tiny principality of Liechtenstein, where the government also made progress toward the legalization of same-sex marriage.

The centrist coalition that came to power in Poland in December took swift steps to dismantle its illiberal predecessor’s political control over public media, which could lead to a more free and diverse information environment. The new government also pledged to decriminalize abortion and support same-sex civil unions, in sharp contrast to the previous government’s hostility toward the LGBT+ community and efforts to tighten restrictions on reproductive health care.

Middle-East

War in Gaza shakes an already repressive status quo

Hamas’s massive terrorist attack on October 7 and Israel’s ensuing military campaign in the Gaza Strip caused catastrophic human suffering. The conflict, which threatened to metastasize into a wider war, contributed to an overall decline in freedom for Israel, Gaza, and the Middle East as a whole in 2023. It also highlighted the critical need for a peaceful solution that prioritizes democratic freedoms and long-term security for both Palestinians and Israelis, and it illustrated the chronic instability stemming from the denial of political rights and civil liberties across the region, where 90 percent of the population lives in Not Free countries and territories.

Public outrage over the Israeli military’s actions led a number of governments to loosen generally tight restrictions on freedom of assembly. In Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, and elsewhere, state-sanctioned demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinians were relatively peaceful and allowed to proceed without the usual crackdowns by authorities. However, other types of public gatherings—including demonstrations ahead of a climate summit in the United Arab Emirates and ongoing antigovernment protests in Iran—continued to draw harsh responses from security forces.

The Gaza conflict had a far more dangerous effect on Yemen, where an April 2022 truce had raised hopes for a permanent end to the country’s decade-long civil war and an associated humanitarian crisis. The pause in fighting between the Houthi militant group, backed by Tehran, and a Saudi-led military coalition led to decreased violence and a slight improvement in the humanitarian situation in 2023, but these modest gains were cast into doubt when the Houthis began attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea in an ostensible bid to force the Israelis to withdraw from Gaza.

Notable Threats to Freedom in 2023

In addition to the problems of electoral manipulation and armed conflict, the following threats frequently affected specific freedoms—or the freedoms of specific groups—over the course of the year.

1) Organized crime groups menaced democratic institutions, security, and freedom.

• In Ecuador, a presidential candidate was assassinated after leaving a campaign rally. Early in the new year, as the authorities cracked down on the organized criminal groups believed to be responsible, gangs retaliated with a wave of violence and threats, including the seizure of a television station in Guayaquil by heavily armed men and a hostage video warning that “police, civilians, and soldiers are the spoils of war.” Incidents of violent crime, kidnapping, and extortion also spread across Mexico, where an important presidential election is scheduled for June. Gang violence in Haiti, including abductions and killings, continued to proliferate, particularly in areas that were previously considered to be safe. In Myanmar, a corrupt military junta and the chaos touched off by its 2021 coup have allowed criminal groups engaged in human trafficking to expand their activities in the country and throughout the Mekong River region.

2) Freedom to practice a chosen religion was suppressed.

• The Taliban regime in Afghanistan intensified its efforts to enforce religious conformity by instructing universities to remove religious books not aligned with its version of Sunni Islam and preventing the public celebration of Shiite Muslim and Hindu holidays. In India, separate incidents of violence resulted in damage to mosques, Muslim-owned businesses, and Christian churches. In the United States and several other countries, antisemitic and anti-Muslim threats and violence increased amid heightened tensions following Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack and Israel’s ensuing military campaign in Gaza. In a startling act of violence, a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy was killed outside Chicago by his landlord in what police described as a hate crime. In Seattle, synagogues received suspicious envelopes containing white powdery substances, prompting alerts among Jewish communities.

3) LGBT+ people’s rights were targeted through restrictive laws.

• Ghana’s Parliament considered a highly repressive bill that would increase penalties for same-sex relations and criminalize advocacy on behalf of LGBT+ people’s rights. The Kremlin extended its already extensive anti-LGBT+ policies during the year. In July, President Vladimir Putin signed a law that dissolved transgender people’s marriages and barred them from adopting children. In November, the Russian Supreme Court labeled the “international LGBT public movement” as an extremist organization, despite the lack of any specific entity with that name, opening the door for arbitrary criminal prosecution of people accused of identifying as LGBT+. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan blamed LGBT+ communities for the erosion of “the institution of the family." His ruling Justice and Development Party has proposed legally codifying the definition of family as a unit centered on a man and a woman.

4) Migrants and refugees were subjected to arbitrary deportation and physical violence.

• The Lebanese military summarily deported thousands of Syrians who were seeking refuge in the country, including unaccompanied children in April and May, disregarding the international legal principle of nonrefoulement. In October, the government of Pakistan announced that it would expel all unregistered migrants. The declaration itself and subsequent efforts to enforce it compelled more than 500,000 of the 1.7 million Afghan refugees in the country to cross into Afghanistan. After an incendiary speech by President Kaïs Saïed of Tunisia, in which he decried the influence of migrants and asserted the country’s Arab and Muslim identity, violent attacks on African migrants surged. In Cyprus, anti-immigrant demonstrations were followed by vandalism targeting migrant-owned businesses and properties in Limassol and Chloraka. Authorities in Germany also recorded a rise in the number of attacks on migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees living in the country in 2023.