Will Kenya’s Ruling Political Marriage Survive?

by Erica Matagaro, Nairobi Finance Officer

The president and his deputy have formed a winning electoral combination, but with the latter now facing political and legal challenges, the alliance’s future is in doubt.

It is said that every marriage has rocky patches here and there, and the alliance between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, is no exception. Uhuru and Ruto are viewed as representatives of the two main ethnic communities in Kenya, the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin, and the success of this political marriage is a clear indicator that the postelection violence of 2007–08 will not be repeated. The alliance was founded mainly on the ability of Ruto to deliver the vote from his stronghold in the Rift Valley area during the 2013 general elections. However, a recent revolt against the deputy president by former allies in the region suggests that his political contribution to the ruling coalition may be under threat.

Ruto has been traveling in the Rift Valley to drum up support for his party’s candidate in a parliamentary by-election that took place today, March 7. But his presence has been overshadowed by a group of disgruntled factions that united in opposition to the alleged skewing of government appointments in favor of Uhuru’s supporters. Similar grievances about government jobs have been raised against Ruto by political leaders of the Maasai ethnic community, who also voted for the ruling Jubilee Coalition in large numbers in 2013.

Looming legal challenges

Former devolution cabinet secretary Anne Waiguru, deemed to be a close confidant of the president, has further rocked the Jubilee Coalition by naming key Ruto allies as active players in a huge corruption scandal within her ministry. Waiguru has portrayed herself as a victim of political intimidation by higher and more powerful forces, who she said threatened her with unspecified consequences if she did not adhere to their directives.

This revelation is bound to create more political turmoil. It might be a game between the forces representing the two main communities in Kenya—the Kikuyu and Kalenjin—who voted in ruling coalition. The question is whether the president will throw one of his close allies under the bus to save his political image. In the past, the president’s office has come out very strongly to defend the former cabinet secretary against all corruption claims levied against her, but investigations were recently reopened after one of her alleged accomplices submitted an affidavit on the matter.

Meanwhile, Ruto seems to have bigger fish to fry. He still faces charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his alleged role in the 2007–08 postelection violence, in which over 1,100 lives were lost and more than 660,000 people were internally displaced. An impending decision by the ICC Trial Chamber will determine whether the case proceeds. The prosecution has previously criticized the Kenyan government for noncooperation that led to the withdrawal of a parallel case against Uhuru. A recent ruling by the Appellate Chamber rejected the admission of evidence from witnesses who had recanted—due to threats and bribery, according to prosecutors—which will likely weaken the prosecution case and provide Ruto a much-needed lifeline.

A willingness to suppress criticism

In considering how Uhuru might respond to these challenges, one must remember that Ruto is part of a government that has wielded its powers over the past year in an effort to shrink civic space as well as press freedom. Examples include the recently passed media law, which criminalized any publication deemed “defamatory to parliament,” and repeated threats to deregister hundreds of nongovernmental organizations and place a legal cap on foreign funding for such groups. On the issue of the ICC case, politicians backing the ruling coalition have attacked civil society groups that supported the international legal process, denouncing it as an attempt to destabilize Kenya.

The big question remains: Will President Uhuru drop Ruto in favor of other emerging contenders who could help him secure the Rift Valley vote in 2017? Or will the two allies take measures to ensure that their political marriage survives this rocky period? In either scenario, however, the government’s actions to date suggest that it will not hesitate to infringe on press freedom, the rule of law, or democracy in general to achieve its political goals.