Pakistan’s next general election, in which voters will select all 342 National Assembly members, is currently scheduled for October 2023. Significant uncertainties remain ahead of the vote, including questions over the timing of the election itself, amid an escalating confrontation between former prime minister Imran Khan and Pakistan’s powerful military establishment. Tensions increased when paramilitary officers arrested Khan in May, prompting violent clashes between Khan’s supporters and the authorities. Within days of his arrest, the Supreme Court ordered Khan’s release on procedural grounds. In the weeks that followed, dozens of prominent officials quit Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, some after being arrested and others citing pressure from the military.

The incumbent coalition government is led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N). The coalition assumed power after the National Assembly removed Khan from office in an April 2022 no-confidence vote. Khan has blamed the military for his ouster and pressured the coalition government to hold early elections. As part of those efforts, the provincial governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa dissolved their assemblies in early 2023, with the aim of triggering snap elections to communicate the PTI’s strength in those provinces. As of early July, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had repeatedly delayed the provincial elections, despite a Supreme Court order mandating that they be held within 90 days of the assemblies’ dissolution per the constitution.

Khan’s eligibility to run in October 2023 is also unclear. In October 2022, the ECP barred Khan from public office for five years after a corruption investigation; Khan has contested the decision. The Islamabad High Court issued an arrest warrant for Khan in February 2023 over the case that prompted the ECP’s decision. The ruling coalition, meanwhile, is openly considering whether to ban the PTI entirely, citing the violent May protests.

The ongoing political crisis is a manifestation of the intense political dysfunction and partisanship that have affected Pakistan in recent years. Pakistan holds regular elections under a competitive multiparty political system, and electoral laws are considered largely fair. However, the PTI, the PML-N, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) have leveraged relationships with the military and the judiciary to manipulate the campaign environment in the past. During the most recent general election in 2018, experts identified widespread prepoll rigging as candidates were improperly disqualified and journalists reporting on the vote faced censorship, intimidation, and physical violence. The ECP was criticized for its failure to counter electoral manipulation efforts and for the collapse of its vote-tallying system on polling day.

Security concerns also cast a shadow over the October 2023 election. The army could use its power to politically intervene ahead of the ballot. The potential for election-related violence remains high: Khan survived an assassination attempt in November 2022, while the May 2023 protests were marred by violence on the part of protesters and the use of excessive force by security officers. Separately, attacks by Islamist militants on religious minorities and other perceived opponents may further undermine the election environment, particularly given the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day:

• Internet shutdowns: Pakistani authorities frequently cite security concerns to disrupt telecommunications services during protests, elections, or other politically charged events. The Sharif government restricted connectivity across Pakistan for several days in May 2023 after Khan’s arrest, deploying a tactic that Khan himself had used to stifle the opposition while in office. Similarly, authorities cut internet service in several major cities amid widespread protests over Khan’s removal from office in May 2022. Such restrictions limit access to voting information, impede discussions about the election, and hinder Pakistanis as they conduct their everyday business.
• Information manipulation: Pakistan’s political parties have weaponized the information space to galvanize supporters and undermine opponents. Mainstream parties maintain social media wings and employ looser networks that spread disinformation to attack their opponents and boost party narratives. These networks have been mobilized during the ongoing political crisis. After losing the April 2022 no-confidence vote, Khan thanked “social media warriors” who spread his allegations that the United States facilitated his ouster, a claim he later appeared to walk back. Meanwhile, PML-N officials alleged that automated accounts and impersonators manipulated criticism of the no-confidence vote. The coalition government has also mulled using communications regulators to target purportedly antimilitary social media activities. Information manipulation during the electoral period may further distort the already tumultuous online environment, obstructing access to reliable information about the polls.
• Arrests and prosecutions: Authorities routinely pursue politically motivated prosecutions of political opponents and journalists for their online activities. For example, in February 2023, a court sentenced a PTI supporter to three years’ imprisonment over Twitter posts criticizing the military. Also in February, Federal Investigation Agency officers arrested journalist Imran Riaz Khan; in a video disseminated via social media, Riaz Khan had questioned a former army chief over claims that the military would distance itself from politics. Riaz Khan was again arrested in May 2023 but subsequently disappeared; his whereabouts remained unknown as of early July. Online journalists and other commentators reporting on the election or engaging with election-related topics may face retribution, undermining voters’ access to poll-related information.
• Harassment and violence: Pakistan’s internet users face intimidation, blackmail, and violence in response to their online activities. In particular, women journalists—especially those who cover politically sensitive events—are often harassed and intimidated for their online reporting. Politicians have contributed to such hostility. For example, PTI officials have alternately downplayed or fueled targeted online threats of physical violence by their supporters. These coordinated online attacks, from both state and nonstate actors, may be lodged against women, LGBT+ people, religious minorities, and opposition parties during the fraught election period, potentially curtailing online discussion about the vote.
• Website blocks and content removal: Pakistani authorities regularly block access to websites and pressure social media companies to remove content, including about political and social issues. For example, the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) briefly restricted access to Wikipedia in February 2023 after the platform refused to remove content the PTA deemed “sacrilegious.” During the 2018 election, the PTA blocked the website of the left-leaning Awami Workers Party. Such restrictions limit access to independent commentary about the election, criticism of political parties, and information about voting. However, the extent to which such restrictions have been imposed during the political crisis and election period is unclear because the PTA’s operations are opaque.

Pakistan has a score of 35 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects a political system vulnerable to military influence and restrictions on civil rights alongside a restricted environment for online expression. The country is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2023, with a score of 37 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties, and Not Free in Freedom on the Net 2022, with an internet freedom score of 26 out of 100. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Pakistan country reports in Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.