On February 25, Belarus will hold a legislative election for the bicameral National Assembly, the first national elections since the rigged 2020 presidential vote, which spurred a wave of mass protests and a crackdown on civil society and independent media. In the most recent parliamentary elections in 2019, virtually all the seats in both the Council of the Republic and the House of Representatives went to loyalists to Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has held the presidency since 1994, with “independent” candidates unaffiliated with any political party winning most of the seats. In 2023, the independents, who are closely aligned with Lukashenka, formed the Belaya Rus party, which now holds a supermajority in both chambers. Since Lukashenka’s brutal response to protests over his reelection to a sixth term in 2020, the major democratic opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has operated in exile and does not consider the elections legitimate. Supporters of the opposition remaining in the country have faced severe repression. The judiciary and other institutions lack independence and provide no check on Lukashenka’s power.

The parliamentary elections are expected to be neither free nor fair. According to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the 2019 parliamentary contest featured an “overly restrictive” registration process, severe limits on freedom of assembly and expression, and an election administration process partial to the incumbent government. These conditions have only worsened in the interim. Following the 2020 protests, Lukashenka further consolidated his control over the country, eliminating critical media outlets and the remaining opposition. A 2022 constitutional referendum, which featured widespread electoral fraud, once again expanded the president’s powers. Then, in 2023, Lukashenka introduced stricter rules for operating a political party and banned an array of remaining parties, including the Belarusian Popular Front Party, the Green Party, Republican Party, and Social Democratic Party of People’s Accord, effectively reducing the number of registered parties to four, all fully controlled by and loyal to the Lukashenka regime. The electoral process in 2024 will be even more tightly controlled; recent amendments to the electoral code banned the practice of photographing a completed ballot and removed the turnout threshold after opposition calls for a boycott. 

Lukashenka’s regime has also supported the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine since February 2022, when the Russian military launched a portion of the full-scale invasion from Belarus. Although the Belarusian government did not deploy troops in Ukraine, the administration has ramped up defense spending and has reportedly been complicit in the kidnapping and “reeducation” of Ukrainian children living in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. The authorities have made “armed pacifism” a key tenet of their messaging ahead of the parliamentary elections and the ensuing presidential vote in 2025. The Belarusian government United States- and European Union-led sanctions continue to negatively impact the Belarusian economy, which already suffered from the departure of much of its tech sector following the 2020 protests. 

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day: 

• Website blocking and content removal: Lukashenka’s government has blocked websites of most independent media outlets, civil society organizations, and Ukrainian news sites, as well as links to Telegram channels and crowdfunding platforms. As of June 2023, the Belarusian Internet Observatory reported that upwards of 9,000 websites were blocked. When media websites have begun operating again in exile, authorities have also blocked their “mirror sites.” For instance, the state blocked the new website of Brestskaya Gazeta, a media outlet that had its original website blocked prior to launching a new website abroad. The government also invokes a wide range of “anti-extremism” legislation to mandate the removal of content, including news articles and comments on websites, and persecute those who share it. The Lukashenka regime is likely to employ these tactics against any criticism of the electoral process or results. 
• Arrests and prosecutions: Individuals who have criticized Lukashenka and his government’s policies routinely face lengthy prison sentences, often under “extremism” or “terrorism” charges. The government has sought to make an example out of those who participated in the protests against Lukashenka in 2020. In June 2023, a Belarusian court sentenced activist Yana Pinchuk to 12 years in prison for her role in managing the critical Telegram channel Vitsebsk97%. Several other bloggers, Telegram channel administrators, and those who helped campaign against Lukashenka in the 2020 elections have faced similar sentences. The government could detain and prosecute individuals who question the integrity of the parliamentary elections in 2024. 
• Harassment and intimidation: Authorities have conducted raids and launched smear campaigns against activists, journalists, civil society representatives, and ordinary citizens who have criticized the government online. Additionally, authorities torture and publicly humiliate those who they have imprisoned on trumped-up charges. Security agencies have made a practice of releasing forced confession videos, where they coerce individuals who have been arrested to “admit” to their crimes and reveal personal information, including intimate images. Publicly government-aligned social media channels, like Zheltye Slivy (Yellow Plums), harass and intimidate critics. The government will continue to retaliate against perceived opponents ahead of the election.
• Internet shutdowns: The government initiated a three-day nationwide internet shutdown during the mass protests that followed the 2020 presidential vote. In the following months, the government launched localized internet shutdowns to hamper organizing as people took part in weekly Sunday protests, which it had previously done in 2019 and earlier in 2020 at rallies ahead of the election. The government could use the upcoming election as a pretext to restrict internet connectivity, though its use of widespread website blocking since early 2021 and the evisceration of the political opposition may make a full-scale internet shut unlikely. 

Belarus has a score of 13 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects widespread website blocking, severe intimidation and harassment, and the continued arrest of those who criticize the regime online. The country is rated Not Free in Freedom in the World 2023, with a score of 8 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties; Not Free in Freedom on the Net 2023, with an internet freedom score of 25 out of 100; and as a Consolidated Authoritarian Regime in Nations in Transit 2023, with a score of 2 out of 100 for the country’s democratic progress. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Belarus country reports in Freedom in the World, Freedom on the Net, and Nations in Transit.