A broad opposition coalition, whose members range from the social-liberal Democratic Coalition to the far-right-turned-conservative Jobbik, will challenge Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Alliance of Young Democrats–Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz) in Hungary’s upcoming parliamentary elections. The six-party United Opposition held primaries in September and October 2021, electing Péter Márki-Zay, the conservative mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, as their candidate for the premiership. The United Opposition is the largest and broadest coalition to oppose Fidesz in a national election, and coalesced amid a years-long trend of democratic backsliding in Hungary under Orbán.

After taking power in 2010 elections, Fidesz pushed through constitutional and legal changes that have allowed it to consolidate control over the country’s independent institutions. These include electoral redistricting procedures that have favored its candidates; media laws that politicized registration processes; and changes to the court system that allowed Fidesz to more easily place allies on the benches. The Fidesz-led government has also moved to institute policies that hamper the operations of opposition groups, journalists, universities, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) who criticize it or whose perspectives it finds unfavorable. Reporting in 2021 identified Hungarian journalists, lawyers, and opposition figures as among the potential targets of surveillance using NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware. The reporting, including the revelation that three journalists had Pegasus spyware installed on their devices in 2019, raised concerns about domestic surveillance by the Hungarian government, which eventually admitted to using the spyware, though it did not confirm the targets.

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch for ahead of election day:

• Information manipulation: The government has consolidated control over media outlets in recent years, including online outlets, increasing the likelihood that the upcoming election could be marred by online information manipulation. According to an investigation by journalists at hvg.hu, Facebook ad summaries showed 54.2 million forints' ($174,835) worth of spending during October 2021 on sponsored posts suggesting that former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány wields influence over Márki-Zay, or that questioned his conservative credentials. The report attributed the spending to Fidesz politicians and other influential progovernment figures. Additionally, the government’s national consultations, or surveys that ask for citizens’ opinions on political issues, often contain charged partisan language or mischaracterizations of opposition parties’ positions. Separately, during the 2019 municipal elections, government-affiliated news outlets spread disinformation implying the opposition had made deals with Soros and the European Commission to allow more migrants to enter the country, a conspiracy theory the government had previously referenced in its national consultations. These efforts disrupt the information landscape, can hinder voters’ access to reliable information, and impact public discourse. 
• Cyberattacks: Cyberattacks have already been documented in the lead-up to the 2022 elections. In September 2021, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks during the opposition’s primaries temporarily shut down the voting system, though access was eventually restored and citizens were given additional time to vote. Some members of the opposition accused Fidesz of involvement, while others speculated about involvement by the Chinese Communist Party. Orbán denied involvement, and the perpetrator remains unknown. Cyberattacks have also targeted Orbán’s government. In March 2020, the state-operated website for information on the COVID-19 pandemic experienced a DDoS attack, while a January 2021 cyberattack temporarily prevented access to a number of government websites. 

Hungary has a score of 70 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects pressure on rule of law, the opposition, and free expression. The country is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2021, with a score of 69 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties; Free in Freedom on the Net 2021, with an internet freedom score of 70 out of 100; and as a transitional or hybrid regime in Nations in Transit 2021, with a score of 45 out of 100 for the country’s democratic progress. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Hungary country reports in Freedom in the World, Freedom on the Net, and Nations in Transit.