Five years after a highly contentious rerun election that resulted in the reelection of President Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenyan voters are set to choose Kenyatta’s successor in the August 2022 general elections. William Ruto, the current deputy president, and Raila Odinga, former prime minister and now opposition leader, are the frontrunners in the presidential race. Though Ruto was once widely considered Kenyatta’s likely successor, Kenyatta instead offered his support to rival-turned-ally Odinga in a power-sharing agreement that sparked concerns that Kenyatta would try to remain involved in government under an Odinga presidency. Ethnicity and tribalism are salient factors in Kenyan elections, and elections have historically been flashpoints of conflict, as in 2007 and 2017. The close competition and growing tensions between the leading presidential candidates suggest that the 2022 election could similarly spark electoral violence. In addition to electing a new president, voters will also be choosing candidates for the National Assembly, Senate, and local executive positions. 

Kenya has held regular multiparty elections since 1992. Pervasive corruption and brutality by security forces remain serious problems. The judiciary is generally independent, as seen in 2017, when the Supreme Court annulled the initial election results and ordered a rerun to ensure free and fair elections. The country’s media and civil society sectors are vibrant, even as journalists and human rights defenders remain vulnerable to restrictive laws and intimidation. 

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day:

• Information manipulation and disinformation: The Kenyan online information landscape is manipulated by state and nonstate actors who pay users, especially bloggers with significant clout, to share distorted information on politically sensitive topics. Such tactics have increased since the last election cycle in 2017. Ahead of the election, coordinated Twitter accounts are already amplifying content aimed at discrediting both candidates. In January 2022, for example, bloggers allied with Ruto posted a slideshow containing pictures of politicians who Odinga allegedly betrayed during his political career.  Political parties, campaigns, and candidates are likely to further mobilize supporters and coordinated networks to spread narratives discrediting opponents, reducing the reliability of the online media space and increasing the potential for violence sparked by misinformation and hate speech.
• Harassment and violence: Intimidation and harassment are increasing concerns in Kenya’s online environment. During the last election cycle, women candidates in legislative and local elections faced online intimidation accompanied by sexual harassment and violence. Police officers also destroyed journalists’ phones to suppress reporting on election-related human rights violations. The climate for online speech may become more dangerous for politicians and journalists, who may face online and offline harms as a result of their election-related posts.
• Arrests and prosecutions: Bloggers and social media users continue to be arrested or summoned for questioning. During the 2017 election season, numerous bloggers were arrested for posting alleged hate speech. More recently, in April 2021, human rights defender Mutemi Wa Kiama was arrested for making social media posts calling on the IMF to halt loans to the Kenyan government, and in August 2020, Charles Gichuki was arrested for launching a website to track corruption during the Kenyatta regime. Bloggers and online journalists may be arrested or prosecuted for posting election-related content, and those who are not allied with a candidate may choose to self-censor instead.   

Kenya has a score of 55 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects competitive elections, an independent judiciary, and an online environment marred by disinformation and online manipulation. The country is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2022, with a score of 48 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties and Partly Free in Freedom on the Net 2021, with an internet freedom score of 66 out of 100. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Kenya country reports in Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.