On October 20, Moldovans will vote in the country’s third presidential elections since returning to a direct electoral system in 2016. President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) is running for reelection against more than a dozen candidates, including former prosecutor general Alexandru Stoianoglo of the Socialist Party (PSRM). PAS has held a majority in parliament since 2021, while PSRM, headed by pro-Russian former president Igor Dodon, leads the major opposition bloc. Moldova formally began accession talks with the European Union (EU) in June, and a popular referendum on the country's EU membership will be held on the same day as the presidential election. Both votes will prove pivotal to the future of Moldovan democracy.

This assessment was last updated on September 5. 

Since taking office in 2020, Sandu has tried to distance her administration from the Kremlin and take steps toward EU integration. The government has attempted to crack down on foreign interference, including sources of illicit financing from Russia. Fugitive oligarch Ilan Șor has been the main target of these efforts. In 2023, Șor was convicted of fraud and money laundering and was internationally sanctioned for attempting to overthrow the government. Local media owned by Șor and other oligarchs have been vectors for foreign interference, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns originating from Russian actors. Șor has also been investigated for illegally channeling funding from Moscow to several political parties to which he remains closely linked, including the Chance Party. In July 2024, Moldova’s Constitutional Court overturned a 2023 amendment to the electoral code that barred Chance Party candidates from running for office. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) considered the ban disproportionate, although it found that the elections were negatively impacted by Chance’s illegal campaign activities. As of the end of August 2024, parties connected to Șor had yet to back a presidential candidate in the 2024 contest.

Moldova has a competitive electoral environment, and freedoms of assembly, speech, and religion are mostly protected. The OSCE evaluated the country’s last local elections in November 2023 as peaceful and well-administered by the Central Election Commission (CEC). However, vote buying and misuse of public resources persist. Pervasive corruption, links between major political figures and powerful economic interests, and critical deficiencies in the justice sector and the rule of law all hamper democratic governance. Domestic reform is at times overshadowed by national security concerns given Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine.

Moldova has a score of 63 out of 100, with 100 representing the strongest defenses against digital election interference. Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index is based on a selection of key electoral indicators. The score reflects broad pretexts for website blocking, disinformation campaigns targeting the country’s leadership, vulnerability to cyberattacks, and a pattern of online harassment directed at journalists.

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day: 

• Website blocks: Moldova’s Commission for Emergency Situations (CSE) has enabled the Security and Intelligence Service (SIS) to order website blocks under the broad pretext of national security, which was later expanded to include any website that is used in information warfare against the state. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Moldovan government blocked a slew of websites under a new state of emergency, which followed a prior state of emergency declared at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The orders to block websites in February 2022, March 2023, and October 2023 largely concerned Russian state-linked news sites and television channels, as well as websites linked to prominent fugitive oligarchs Vlad Plahotniuc and Ilan Șor. Although the state of emergency lapsed at the end of 2023, the transposing of some of these restrictions into law under a new mechanism raises concerns that the government could block additional websites in the run-up to the elections. 
• Information manipulation: Moldova’s online environment is rife with disinformation perpetuated by prominent oligarchs and other actors linked to Russia. For instance, in early 2024, Meta removed a network of over 1,300 fake Facebook accounts that spread narratives critical of the Moldovan government. WatchDog, a Moldovan civil society organization, reported that oligarchs Șor and Veaceslav Platon had funded the network. President Maia Sandu has been targeted by sophisticated campaigns, using manipulated media such as deepfakes that depict her promoting parties linked to Șor and joking about the cost of living. In late 2023, pro-Russia TikTok accounts spread videos of American celebrities, who had been unknowingly recruited to record these videos on Cameo, calling for Sandu to be “brought down.” Moldova will likely continue to face a diverse array of disinformation threats throughout the electoral period.   
• Cyberattacks: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has faced a deluge of cyberattacks. Between the outbreak of the war and August 2022, over 80 Moldovan government institutions faced hacking attempts. In November 2023, the CEC was also targeted by hacking attacks after polls closed, briefly delaying its ability to process preliminary results from local elections. Moldovan media outlets also face potentially debilitating cyberattacks. In May 2024, hacking attempts forced two media outlets to shut down for four days. Similar technical attacks could spike ahead of the election. 
• Online harassment: While physical violence in retaliation for online speech is less common, online harassment, particularly targeting journalists, remains a threat ahead of the elections. A 2022 study by the Association of Independent Press of Moldova recorded 56 attacks, including threats, against both online and offline journalists. In 60 percent of the cases, opposition politicians perpetrated these attacks. Observers should remain especially vigilant ahead of the election for intensifying online harassment against those reporting on the vote.

Moldova is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2024, with a score of 61 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties and as a Transitional or Hybrid Regime in Nations in Transit 2024, with a score of 36 out of 100 for the country’s democratic progress. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Moldova country reports in Freedom in the World and Nations in Transit, and Freedom House’s Moldova country portal.