Nigeria will host one of its most high-stakes elections in decades on February 25, 2023. The country’s citizens will elect their new president, vice-president, and all 469 members of the Senate and House of Representatives. President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC) will be leaving office after eight years due to term limits, and public polls had not yet indicated a clear leader in the presidential race as of January. Separately on March 11, Nigerians will vote for state governors in 28 states and the legislatures of all 36 states of the federation. 

If successful—namely, if held without undue or violent interference—the 2023 election will be the first time during its 63 years of independence that Nigeria has secured three consecutive peaceful transitions of power. This marks an important indicator of how Nigerian democracy has progressed incrementally since 1999, when the military last ruled. An aborted election, or one fraught with violence and malpractice, would be a huge blow to Nigeria, already reeling from serious security threats, polarization, and economic challenges. It would also weaken Nigeria’s stature within the region, particularly its authority to take a stance against unconstitutional takeovers of powers elsewhere. 

While peaceful and credible elections have never been a foregone conclusion in Nigeria, the 2023 election faces some unique threats. The biggest among them are the violent activities of several non-state armed groups who have publicly expressed a wish to scupper the country’s vulnerable democracy. For instance, militant groups have attacked local offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) throughout the country. Boko Haram, which has attempted to disrupt past elections and has expanded its operations since the last electoral cycle, remains a threat. Others – including the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and militant gangs known as “bandits” – have emerged with concerning sophistication and lethality. Previous Nigerian elections have triggered violence and widespread social unrest, as when over 800 people were killed in the aftermath of the 2011 general election. In 2023, this risk is heightened by the ruling APC’s selection of presidential and vice-presidential candidates drawn from the same faith, as well as the spread of false and misleading information on social media. 

Conversely, new election reforms may bolster election preparedness, infrastructure, and transparency. The Electoral Act, which was enacted in February 2022, bolsters the INEC’s capacity for oversight and digitizes some components of polling, among other changes.

Freedom House has identified the following key digital issues to watch ahead of election day:

• Information manipulation: False and misleading information surged online during the 2019 national election. Some internet users spread narratives that portrayed candidates as biased against specific ethnic and religious communities. Others sought to undermine candidates through allegations of corruption or, in the case of one popular fabrication about President Buhari, of being an impersonator hired to replace the candidate. Political officials sometimes spread those narratives further, and both the APC and the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) reportedly engaged networks of online commentators to spread favorable narratives throughout the 2019 election season. Similar influence operations may emerge ahead of the polling in February, with the potential to shape how people vote or to incite violence. Fact-checkers have identified concerning false claims circulating on social media, including misinformation alleging that the APC candidate Bola Tinubu called for supporters to seize ballot boxes and that PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar traded bribes for endorsements. Groups like the Nigeria Fact Check Coalition and the Centre for Democracy and Development-West Africa have mobilized to counter the harms of election disinformation.
• Blocking of platforms and websites: The government sometimes blocks online content and social media platforms for political aims. Authorities ordered Twitter blocked between June 2021 and January 2022 after the platform removed a tweet by President Buhari that seemed to threaten violence against Biafran secessionists. The government has also blocked websites associated with the #EndSARS movement against police brutality and sites promoting Biafran independence. Protests or political instability during the electoral period could prompt similar restrictions, limiting people’s access to reliable information about the election and independent commentary about candidates.  
• Arrests and prosecutions for online activities: Bloggers and online commentators are occasionally arrested for their commentary on political leaders. For example, security forces arrested the founder of news site EaglesForeSight in May 2022 after the outlet republished an article detailing fraud allegations against the governor of Ogun State. Online journalists and other commentators reporting on the election may face similar retribution, limiting oversight of campaigning and undermining voters’ access to election-related information. 

Nigeria has a score of 51 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects unprecedented insecurity throughout the country, including militant violence in northern states and civil unrest in the south, as well as restrictions on free assembly and online expression. The country is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2022, with a score of 43 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties, and Partly Free in Freedom on the Net 2022, with a score of 57 out of 100. Scores and ratings for Nigeria in the Freedom in the World 2023 report, covering the 2022 calendar year, will be released in the spring of 2023. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Nigeria country reports for Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.