Over the course of three days in July 2024, Rwandan voters will elect their president and members of the 80-seat Chamber of Deputies. The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), led by President Paul Kagame, has ruled the country since 1994, when it ousted forces responsible for that year's genocide and ended a civil war. Kagame is widely expected to win another five-year term, following previous votes marred by government repression and strict media control, and the RPF is also anticipated to win a sweeping majority of seats. 53 of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies are directly elected; of the 27 remaining seats, 24 are reserved for women chosen by local councils, two are members from the National Youth Council, and one is a member from the Federation of Associations of the Disabled. The National Electoral Commission (NEC) is appointed by the Senate, the RPF-dominated upper house of parliament, and its qualification decisions and barriers to registration have been criticized for unfairly impacting opposition parties and candidates.

Besides Kagame, the NEC has only approved two other candidates: Frank Habineza, leader of the opposition Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR), and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana. In the 2017 presidential election, which the two also contested, Habineza and Mpayimana each received less than one percent of the vote to Kagame's 98.8 percent, according to the official NEC results. Other candidates who have been vocal critics of Kagame and the RPF have been barred from participating in the 2024 presidential contest. Courts upheld the ban on Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, founder of the unregistered Dalfa-Umurinzi party, due to her past prison sentence, which she served following her attempt to run for president in 2010. The NEC barred Diane Rwigara of the People Salvation Movement (PSM), whose candidacy was also rejected in 2017, for alleged failure to provide enough documentation of both her background and support.

Kagame and the RPF have suppressed political dissent through pervasive surveillance, intimidation, arbitrary detention, torture, and renditions or suspected assassinations of exiled dissidents. Past elections have been marred by voter intimidation, a lack of ballot secrecy, and reports of ballot stuffing. The government's extensive monitoring and repression of dissent, as well as its pattern of legal and physical repression of political opponents, continue to prevent civic participation and meaningful electoral competition.

Rwanda has a score of 27 out of 100, with 0 being the most vulnerable to digital election interference, on Freedom House's Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key electoral indicators. The score reflects the harsh legal and extralegal punishments for people's online expression, extensive impediments to the participation of opposition parties and candidates in elections, and a highly restrictive environment for media both online and off.

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day:

• Arrests and prosecutions: A number of laws restrict freedom of expression in Rwanda, and those who report independently or critically on the government online face lengthy sentences and hefty fines. YouTube-based journalist Theoneste Nsengimana has remained in detention since 2021 for a video that promoted a Dalfa-Umurinizi event commemorating political prisoners. Another journalist, Dieudonné Niyonsenga, continues to serve his seven-year prison sentence for "humiliating state officials" for discussing human rights abuses perpetrated by Rwandan authorities on his YouTube channel. In an election period, when the government is likely to be even more intolerant of criticism, the threat of prosecution for journalists, opposition figures, and ordinary citizens who speak openly online about the government's human rights record or its electoral conduct looms large.
• Intimidation and threats: An atmosphere of intimidation dissuades many from expressing their views online and seeks to instill fear in those who still criticize the government or the RPF. Everyday internet users, as well as opposition figures and online journalists, face online harassment and trolling in response to critical posts. Intimidation from online trolls or threats from security officials in response to people's online expression can obscure irregularities at polling stations, incentivizes self-censorship, and further restricts the possibilities for Rwandans to access diverse information to inform their electoral choices.
• Offline violence for online expression: Both in Rwanda and abroad, Rwandans who express opposition to the government online face threats of forced disappearance, physical violence, or assassination. In 2023, independent journalist John Ntwali was killed under circumstances that raised suspicions of security forces' involvement in his death; poet and singer Innocent Bahati, who disappeared in 2021 after posting critical poems on YouTube, is still missing. People arbitrarily imprisoned for their online expression have also alleged they have been tortured while in detention. During the 2024 electoral period, a time of heightened political sensitivity, the risks are even greater that journalists or ordinary internet users who post critically about the government, the RPF, or the conduct of the election could face violent retribution.
• Information manipulation: The media environment in Rwanda is tightly controlled in favor of the RPF. During the 2017 presidential election cycle, editors of online news outlets were not allowed to publish articles on candidates challenging President Kagame. On social media, progovernment accounts are mobilized to share and post positive comments in response to posts from Kagame and other official accounts to project widespread support. This manipulation of the online information space obscures accurate and reliable information about candidates and issues on the ballot, making it challenging for citizens to make informed choices about who represents them in government.

Rwanda is rated Not Free in Freedom in the World 2024, with a score of 23 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties and Not Free in Freedom on the Net 2023, with an internet freedom score of 37 out of 100. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Rwanda country reports in Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.