On May 29, South Africans will vote for members of the 400-seat National Assembly, the lower house of the legislature and the body that elects the president, determining whether incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa will secure a second term. Voters will also choose members for each of the country’s nine provincial legislatures, which select members of the upper house of parliament, the National Council of Provinces. The African National Congress (ANC), which has won every national election since 1994, is seeking to hold on to its majority in both chambers. The country’s main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), hopes to unseat the ANC for the first time through a new coalition, the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa. Further threatening the ANC’s majority are increasingly popular party factions that split off to become new groups. These include the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, and the Umkhonto We Sizwe (Spear of the Nation) party, founded in December 2023 by ousted former president Jacob Zuma.

Thirty years after the end of apartheid, South Africa faces what may be its most highly contested election. Polling indicates that the once-dominant ANC could be on the verge of losing its majority in the National Assembly; if it does, it would need to form a national coalition government for the first time. In past election cycles, however, those unhappy with the ANC were just as likely to abstain from voting as they were to vote for an opposition party.

South Africa is a constitutional democracy. Since the end of apartheid in 1994, it has been regarded globally as a proponent of human rights and a leader on the African continent. However, reports of corruption among government officials often emerge, and in recent years, the ANC has been accused of undermining state institutions to protect corrupt officials and preserve its power as its support base has begun to wane. In the face of such corruption scandals, high rates of youth unemployment, crime, and an electricity crisis that has resulted in years of extensive power cuts, many South Africans have grown disillusioned with not only the ANC, but with participation in establishment politics entirely. Seventy percent of South Africans report dissatisfaction with their democracy, and voter turnout has been on a steady decline in recent elections. While the country’s electoral framework is considered fair and the election management body, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), is largely considered independent, recent surveys indicate citizens view the commission with growing mistrust.

South Africa scores a relatively high 82 out of 100 on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, where 100 represents the most resilience to digital election interference. This score reflects a pattern of free and fair elections and legal protections for free expression and press freedom, but also some enduring challenges to the rule of law.

Despite this high level of resilience, Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day:

• Harassment and intimidation: South Africa’s 2019 election cycle was marked by a surge in online harassment against journalists. The Johannesburg High Court ruled that the EFF had violated the electoral code of conduct and created a “chilling effect” on the media after Julius Malema doxed a journalist on Twitter. Another increase in harassment and violent rhetoric against online journalists in 2024 could impact the availability of critical news coverage of political parties and candidates ahead of the vote.
• Influence operations: Investigations from Media Monitoring Africa found that the ANC had established inauthentic accounts to spread messages online ahead of the 2019 elections. The same year, documents uncovered by the Daily Maverick revealed plans for an election interference campaign linked to Russia’s Internet Research Agency and Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the late leader of the private military company Wagner Group. While the impact of such information manipulation on public online discourse in past elections has been low, in part due to South Africa’s robust media environment, more sophisticated influence operations in 2024 could warp online discourse and undermine voters’ access to accurate and reliable information.
• Arrests and fines: Arrests for online activity protected under international human rights standards are rare in South Africa, However, defamation is a crime, and the country’s Cybercrimes Act was used to prosecute individuals for social media posts connected to the outbreak of fatal riots in July 2021. Authorities announced that they would monitor social media for activity that could be considered incitement to violence ahead of the EFF’s national shutdown protests in 2023, while the Film and Publications Board (FPB) stated that those who share or repost inflammatory content online could also be prosecuted.

South Africa is rated Free in Freedom in the World 2024, with a score of 79 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties, and Free in Freedom on the Net 2023, with an internet freedom score of 73 out of 100. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the South Africa country reports in Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.