Taiwanese voters will select a new president and all 113 members of the unicameral Legislative Yuan on January 13, 2024. Incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who took office in 2016, is term-limited, and the field to replace her is crowded. The winner of the presidential contest will serve a four-year term and can run for a second. A DPP-led coalition has held a legislative majority since 2016.

Four candidates are vying to succeed President Tsai. Vice President Lai Ching-te is running for the DPP, while New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih is the candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT), the main opposition party. The founder of the four-year-old Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, is its first-ever presidential candidate. And Terry Gou, the founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry (better known as Foxconn), announced his independent campaign in August 2023, having previously sought the KMT nomination. Gou needed to collect about 290,000 voter signatures to make the ballot; he reportedly achieved this on November 1, but prosecutors are already investigating whether bribery tainted the collection effort. (Note: After this assessment was published, Gou withdrew from the election.)

The presidential election is proving competitive. Lai enjoys a comfortable lead in the field of four candidates, according to opinion polls conducted throughout the summer and fall, but his margin slipped in an October poll. The KMT and TPP have reportedly explored a joint ticket, and Gou’s independent campaign adds complexity to the contest. The conclusion of that race will have consequences for the concurrent legislative elections, as voters will likely fill those ballots on a party-line basis.

Foreign policy, especially regarding relations with China and the United States, will be a key issue in the election. The DPP has historically considered Taiwan a de facto independent nation and advocated for a separate national identity, while the KMT—which ruled Taiwan as a one-party authoritarian state for decades before democratic reform took hold in the 1980s and 90s—has favored unification with China. Lai has apparently moderated his rhetoric on cross-strait relations, while Hou, Ko, and Gou have expressed stances favoring varying levels of closeness to or communication with Beijing. Dissatisfaction over the economy, which contributed to the DPP’s lukewarm performance during the 2022 “nine-in-one” elections, may also impact the results in 2024.

Taiwan’s vibrant and competitive democratic system has allowed for regular, peaceful transfers of power since 2000, and protections for civil liberties are generally robust. Ongoing concerns include inadequate safeguards against the exploitation of migrant workers and the Chinese government’s efforts to influence policymaking, media, and the democratic infrastructure.

 

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day: 

• Information operations: Political disinformation is a significant problem in Taiwan, with voters being targeted by influence operations that support the Chinese government’s positions or are directly orchestrated by Chinese party-state actors. In December 2022, Doublethink Lab reported on an influence campaign that targeted voters during the nine-in-one elections. Those efforts relied on locally based influencers and nationalist Chinese netizens who spread pro-Beijing messages. In September 2023, the Taiwan Information Environment Research Center warned that Beijing-linked actors were trying to manipulate the information space to undermine US-Taiwan relations. Separately, the DPP, KMT, and TPP have accused each other of hiring or deploying commentators to manipulate online opinions, though the extent and effect of these efforts are unclear. Whether originating from foreign or domestic actors, influence operations may undermine voters’ access to reliable information about election-related issues, shaping their engagement at the polls. 
• Cyberattacks: Taiwan faces frequent cyberattacks from overseas, particularly from China-based actors. These attacks often escalate when cross-strait political tensions are heightened. For instance, several government agencies faced distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks ahead of US lawmaker Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taiwan. Journalists have occasionally reported hacking attempts in previous years. DDoS attacks aimed at the electoral infrastructure ahead, during, or after the vote may undermine the balloting or confidence in the results, while cyberattacks against journalists and media organizations could undermine access to information about candidates and the voting process.  
• Arrests and fines: People sometimes face criminal penalties for their online speech under the Social Order Maintenance Act (SOMA), which prohibits misinformation, and the criminal code, which bars defamation and slander. The Civil Servants Election and Recall Act, meanwhile, imposes criminal penalties on those who spread false information related to political proposals or the election of candidates. These legal threats may compel internet users to self-censor when discussing political or social issues online. That said, fewer criminal cases relating to online political speech were issued in 2023 than in previous years and courts are increasingly throwing SOMA cases out.

Taiwan has a score of 87 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects a competitive electoral system and strong protections for human rights, as well as legal restrictions on speech and vulnerability to cyberattacks and information operations. Taiwan is rated Free in Freedom in the World 2023, with a score of 94 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties, and Free in Freedom on the Net 2023, with an internet freedom score of 78 out of 100. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the Taiwan country reports in Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.